Putin Has Begun a Game of Survival: Why Russia Won't Stop and What the Dictator Himself Is Risking

For years, Russia tried to subjugate Ukraine through political pressure, manipulation, and economic influence, but these attempts failed. After that, the Kremlin turned to military force, and Vladimir Putin effectively set the country on a course toward a protracted war, without abandoning his maximalist demands on Ukraine.

Diplomat Valery Chaly explained to 24 Channel why Russia has no intention of ending the war through diplomatic means, why talk of a quick peace is dangerous, and what might ultimately force Putin to stop.

The Empire’s Exhausted Arsenal: Why Putin Bet on Total War

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine is not the result of a sudden decision. It is the result of Moscow’s long-standing inability to maintain control over its neighbor through non-military means.

Russia has lost the technological race against the developed world – a telling example is the failure of the “Skolkovo” project, which was never even able to produce its own cell phone without Chinese components. Realizing its backwardness, the Kremlin resorted to the only tools left over from the Soviet era: nuclear blackmail and the traditional willingness of its own population to die en masse for the tsar.

Putin is taking the situation as emotionally as possible. Ukrainians have thwarted his plans three times, dealing blows to his reputation, upon which all power in Russia rests. Attempts to annex Ukraine began long before 2014: the provocation around Tuzla in 2003, attempts to “buy” loyalty during the 2004–2005 elections, and the appointment of Russians to leadership positions. All of these soft and hybrid methods failed.

According to diplomatic circles, the decision to take the military route was taking shape as early as late 2005–early 2006. It was then that Russian strategists, such as Modest Kolerov, began actively constructing anti-Ukrainian narratives, laying the groundwork for future invasions, the first of which was Georgia.

Today, however, Putin has no other tools at his disposal besides brute military force. He has put the economy on a war footing, overcoming resistance from the financial sector, and is prepared to wage a war of attrition for as long as he can.

Full interview with Chaly: watch the video

The Dangerous Illusion of Negotiations

At a time when Russia has reached the peak of its escalation, deploying ballistic missiles and strategic aviation, constant talk in the media about imminent peace negotiations is destructive. The human psyche is not equipped to handle such emotional swings. Feeding the public “breakfasts” of promises of a quick peace only undermines the spirit of mobilization and lulls the country into complacency.

There are currently no objective factors indicating that Russia is ready for peace. The Kremlin’s goals remain unchanged and are even expanding.

Whereas previously the focus was on specific regions, now The Russian leadership is openly asserting claims to the entire territory of Ukraine. The Russian Foreign Ministry is already using the phrasing “prisoner exchange from territories temporarily controlled by the Kyiv regime,” referring to Kyiv and the western regions.

Moreover, Putin seeks not merely to solidify the situation on the ground but to legally enshrine it by redrawing borders. That is precisely why it is critically important for Ukraine to prevent any amendments to the Constitution regarding the administrative structure, as the removal of references to the occupied regions would give Moscow a formal pretext to claim its “legitimate” rights over them.

Real negotiations are currently possible only on humanitarian tracks: prisoner exchanges, the return of the bodies of the deceased, or targeted humanitarian missions. Broad negotiations to end the war, however, cannot succeed until the aggressor faces an insurmountable force.

The Trap of Foreign Election Cycles

Today, Ukraine finds itself in a peculiar time trap. Western politicians think in terms of their own electoral cycles – the U.S. elections, upcoming campaigns in France and Germany, and the 2028 horizon. The Ukrainian state is forced to operate within these external timeframes, which significantly limits its room for maneuver.

Despite financial and military support from Europe and the U.S., Ukraine is effectively fighting on its own. Historical parallels show that without the allies’ direct entry into the war, it is extremely difficult to stop the aggressor. Finland, in its time, refused Sweden’s help and tried to play off the contradictions between the great powers, but ultimately lost part of its sovereignty, and half a million Finns became refugees.

Western partners still fear escalation. They refuse to jointly control the airspace over the border, even though they have all the technical capabilities to do so. Such weakness only invites Putin to further aggression, as he despises European leaders and wants them to grovel before him.

How Wars Actually End

It is a mistake to believe that a war will last forever or that its outcome can be precisely calculated using mathematical models or artificial intelligence. Historical experience shows that while wars follow a gradual path of escalation, they end with a sharp decline. The cessation of hostilities will come unexpectedly, at the moment when the stars align just right and Russia exhausts its offensive potential.

Russia’s strategy of flooding the front lines with manpower has its limits. The value of human life in Russia has historically been zero – it is a society where the loss of half a million soldiers does not spark protests, and mobilization is accepted as inevitable. However, the war can be stopped by budgetary constraints. Russian defense spending has exceeded $200 billion, and further expansion of the army threatens to cause the system’s internal collapse.

To hasten this outcome, Ukraine must break free from the trap of waiting for negotiations. The only language the aggressor understands is the language of force. Instead of harboring illusions about a diplomatic miracle, the focus must shift to taking the war onto enemy territory. A map showing strikes deep into Russia is the best argument for forcing Moscow to accept a genuine peace. Only by demonstrating the ability to inflict unacceptable losses will Ukraine be able to emerge from this large-scale war not on its knees, but from a position of strength.