Trump Is Playing Into Putin's Hands, but Ukraine Has a Trump Card: Fedorenko Reveals What Could Change the Course of the War

The U.S. may limit the exchange of intelligence with Ukraine, while the decision regarding Starlink could open up new opportunities for strikes against Russian military targets. At the same time, Russia, together with China, is developing its own satellite system, while Europe is looking for ways to strengthen its defenses without becoming critically dependent on Washington.

Yuriy Fedorenko, commander of the "Achilles" unmanned systems brigade, in an interview with Channel 24, explained why Donald Trump’s moves regarding Russia are dangerous, how access to Starlink over Russian territory could affect combat operations, and whether Ukraine can manage without U.S. support.

U.S. Blackmail and What Trump Has in Mind

Despite statements about possible suspension of intelligence data sharing between the U.S. and Ukraine, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are not at risk of complete information isolation, Fedorenko believes.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s collective security system is built on the principle of complementarity: one country’s intelligence gaps are offset by the capabilities of others.

However, U.S. intelligence remains critically important, primarily for the early detection of threats and the protection of civilian lives. Maintaining a partnership with Washington in this area is a top political priority for Kyiv.

Donald Trump’s recent moves, particularly his attempts to improve relations with Russia and U.S. purchases of Russian diesel fuel, are political rather than economic in nature.

The volume of fuel purchased is sufficient to meet U.S. needs for only a few days, which does not play a key role in the American economy but sets a serious political precedent.

The true motives behind these actions remain unclear: they could stem from Trump’s business-like approach to government affairs, or they could indicate that the Kremlin has certain levers of influence over him.

However, this situation served as a wake-up call for European leaders. Threats regarding a possible U.S. withdrawal from NATO and a reevaluation of the principles of collective security have forced Europe to recognize the reality of the Russian threat, which is now viewed not as a local problem for Ukraine, but as a danger on its own doorstep.

This is prompting European countries to strengthen their own defense capabilities, increase funding for the defense sector, and seek new formats for security alliances in the event of an isolationist U.S. policy.

Expectations of rapid changes or of Ukraine being forced to capitulate before the November 3 election are unfounded. Russia continues its terror campaign with ballistic missiles and drones, while Ukrainian society demonstrates its readiness for prolonged armed resistance. After the election, the political situation in Washington will inevitably change.

Trump is unlikely to secure an absolute majority, which will force him to seek compromises with the Democrats even on foreign policy issues, which are formally the president’s prerogative.

Domestic decisions will require a balance, and a number of previous executive orders may be challenged in court, which will stabilize the U.S. course.

Full interview with Yuriy Fedorenko: watch the video

Starlink over Russia and the space race

One of the most important tactical tasks today is obtaining political approval for the use of Starlink systems over Russian territory. This decision does not require additional resources but has the potential to radically change the course of hostilities.

Unblocking communications will allow Ukrainian strike drones to operate with surgical precision against military targets on the aggressor’s territory.

This will minimize risks to Russia’s civilian population while critically reducing Moscow’s ability to launch missiles and drones against Ukraine. It is precisely these precision strikes that are the most effective tool for compelling the Kremlin to negotiate an end to the active phase of the war – not Ukraine’s surrender.

Ukraine’s military leadership is already preparing for the worst-case scenarios, including the possible winding down of U.S. military aid programs (PDA). Modern warfare requires diversification of communication channels – to effectively command troops, it is necessary to have at least three or four alternative systems with different levels of resilience.

Since Ukraine does not have its own space program for launching satellites, the only solution is for NATO countries to create a collective satellite network that would serve as an alternative to Starlink’s private monopoly.

At the same time, Russia is actively working on its own "Rassvet" satellite system. In fact, this program is being implemented by China down to almost every last screw, while Russia provides only the launch site.

If the Moscow–Beijing axis deploys this system before the Western world can consolidate its response, it will pose a global threat. Furthermore, countermeasures against satellite communications are already being developed, requiring Ukraine and its partners to continuously improve their technology.