Putin May Lose Oil Revenues: What Could Break Russia's Economy

Ukraine is systematically weakening Russia’s military machine by striking oil refineries, air bases, and other strategic targets deep behind enemy lines. At the same time, on the front lines, the Russian army is trying to use the last months of fall to advance, regardless of the enormous losses. The outcome of the war may hinge not only on the intensity of Ukrainian strikes but also on whether this pressure on Russia can be sustained despite potential political agreements.

Reserve Colonel and military expert Roman Svitan explained to 24 Channel how many Russian oil refineries need to be targeted to inflict irreversible damage on the enemy’s economy, how strikes on air bases limit the capabilities of Russian strategic aviation, and where the enemy has concentrated its main efforts on the front lines. The expert also assessed the threat of political concessions regarding a halt to strikes on the Russian oil industry, the capabilities of the new IRAM missiles, and how developments in the Middle East could affect the war.

The Math of War: How Many Plants Need to Be Destroyed

Ukraine’s defense forces continue to methodically dismantle Russia’s oil industry. The Attack on the Afip Oil Refinery in the Krasnodar Krai is part of a broader strategy.

This refinery is located in the Rostov area, which directly supplies Russian forces in the Donetsk sector. In total, there are four medium-capacity refineries operating in this region, with a combined annual processing capacity of about 30 million cubic meters. They produce diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel for the occupying army.

Roman Svitan believes that war is a matter of mathematics, and the calculations are quite simple. Russia has about 30 large-scale oil refineries with a capacity of one million cubic meters each. It takes the Russians three to four weeks to restore a single damaged facility. To prevent them from fully recovering, Ukrainian forces need to target approximately one refinery per day.

In other words, once a month, drones must target each of the 30 key refineries in rotation. Only under such constant pressure for half a year or a year will the Russian economy begin to collapse irreversibly.

Comprehensive Strikes: From Oil to Strategic Aviation

The correct approach to operational planning involves striking not only the primary target but also the associated infrastructure. During the attack on the Afip refinery, logistics hubs for oil trading platforms were simultaneously targeted. A similar situation occurred during the attack on the Ryazan Oil Refinery, where primary and secondary refining facilities were struck.

In addition to oil refining, aviation infrastructure is a critically important target. The Dyagilevo Air Base is located in Ryazan – a major hub from which bombers take off to launch X-22 missiles at Ukraine.

Striking Il-78 refueling aircraft at such bases significantly limits the capabilities of Russian strategic aviation. Russia has only a few of these refueling aircraft, and they are actively used to transport bombers from the Far East to bases closer to Ukraine.

Fall Escalation on the Front Lines and Record Enemy Casualties

In parallel with strikes deep behind enemy lines, intense fighting continues along the front lines. The Russian command is attempting to make maximum use of its strategic reserves before severe frosts set in. This is leading to record losses among the occupying forces.

Please note! Units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ Unmanned Systems Forcesset a record, striking 751 occupiers in a single day. In total, drone operators have attacked over 2,500 enemy targets during this period. Among the targets destroyed were hundreds of shelters, 24 ammunition depots, 176 pieces of military equipment, and more than 400 enemy drones.

The enemy’s main offensive is concentrated in the Dobropillia, Huliaipole, and Zaporizhzhia sectors. The Russians are rushing due to the autumn weather – fog and low cloud cover are partially limiting the operation of Ukrainian drones at long ranges.

What’s the situation on the front lines? See the map

However, Ukrainian forces are successfully repelling the attacks, regaining control of positions in the areas of Mala Tokmachka, Borova, and Kupiansk. The destruction of staging areas for Russian reserves is forcing the enemy to engage in combat on the move, covering long distances from the rear to the front lines, which makes them easy targets.

Political Bargaining and the Danger of Security Guarantees

The greatest threat to the strategy of destroying the Russian economy is political maneuvering. The change in administration in the U.S. and Donald Trump's statements about possible dealspose risks for Ukraine. There is a possibility that, in exchange for certain political concessions, Ukraine will come under pressure to halt strikes against the Russian oil refining industry.

Any talk of security guarantees for the Russian oil industry in exchange for empty promises is a trap. Halting the strikes even for a few days gives Russia time to recover. Ukrainian society must strictly monitor this process and respond to any attempts to make such concessions.

Russia can only be defeated through economic pressure by crippling its oil and gas industry, which is the foundation of its war funding.

Myths About IRAM and Strikes on Moscow

In the context of expectations for new types of weapons, particularly theIRAM missilesfor F-16 fighter jets, it is important to maintain a realistic perspective. The IRAM is essentially a guided aerial bomb with a jet engine, carrying a warhead weighing approximately 50 kilograms. Its range is approximately 460 kilograms.

These missiles are physically incapable of reaching Moscow, as they would have to be launched 100 kilometers behind the front lines due to the threat posed by Russian air defense systems. Furthermore, the squadron’s firepower is completely insufficient to inflict critical damage on the Russian capital.

The primary purpose of the IRAM is to carry out precision strikes against the enemy’s operational rear to a depth of up to 300 kilometers in Russia’s border regions and in the occupied territories of Ukraine. It is an effective tool, but it requires mass deployment.

Changes in the Middle East: The End of the Netanyahu Era

The global geopolitical context is also undergoing changes. A change in government is looming in Israel, where former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot may succeed Benjamin Netanyahu.

Netanyahu, in an effort to avoid prosecution, had an interest in prolonging the conflict.

With a military professional coming to power, the situation will change. Former Chiefs of Staff understand best the army’s actual capabilities and the consequences of protracted wars, which is why they typically seek a swift and effective end to hostilities. For Ukraine, this means potential stabilization in the Middle East, which could influence global processes.