"Gerani" are becoming more dangerous, and Western chips are still in Russia: what is the enemy up to?

Russia continues to improve its weapons systems in an effort to circumvent Ukraine’s air defense. From the first gasoline-powered kamikaze drones, the enemy has moved on to jet-powered drones, cheap cruise missiles, and new navigation systems that can complicate the work of Ukrainian electronic warfare systems.

Andriy Shtangret, a host on 24 Channel, analyzed the technologies Russia is incorporating into its drones and missiles, why Western components are still finding their way into Russian weaponry, and how this affects Russia’s capabilities. He also discussed the problems Ukrainian military personnel are facing with Starlink and the threat posed by Russia’s deployment of its own satellite communications system with China’s assistance.

From “mopeds” to cruise missiles: the escalating threat

The Russian military-industrial complex is not standing still; it is constantly adapting to Ukraine’s air defense system. While the enemy initially carried out attacks using primitive “Geran-2” drones powered by gasoline engines, there is now a widespread shift toward jet-powered systems and inexpensive cruise missiles.

According to presidential adviser Serhiy Flash, Russia plans to ramp up production to colossal levels. We’re talking about tens of thousands of units per year for each new model, such as the “Banderole,” “Geran-5,” or the latest "Filin" missile.

The jet-powered “Shaheds” (commonly referred to as “Geran-4”) have posed a serious challenge due to their higher speed and ability to fly at altitudes of 5–7 kilometers. This forced Ukrainian forces to deploy fighter jets, specifically F-16s, and specialized interceptor drones to intercept them.

However, the “Geran-5” demonstrates an even more significant evolution – a modified fuselage and improved maneuverability transform this aircraft into a full-fledged, albeit inexpensive, cruise missile. The distribution of production among various design bureaus creates the risk that Ukraine will soon likely face simultaneous launches of thousands of such weapons.

“Susanin” Optical Navigation: Why Electronic Warfare May Become Ineffective

The enemy’s most alarming innovation is the introduction of visual navigation systems. Realizing that Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) systems successfully jam satellite signals and control channels, the Russians have begun installing the “Susanin” optical module on "Geran-5". This system allows the drone to “see” the ground and autonomously plot a route based on contrasting landmarks.

At night, the module uses the lights of cities, villages, and highways for navigation. Even when the lights are off, the system can detect thermal radiation from heated streetlights or infrastructure objects using a thermal imager.

This means that Russian operators, having access to detailed maps of Ukrainian terrain, can plot routes for drones based solely on visual landmarks. This technological shift calls current security approaches into question and may require a return to strict blackout measures in critical areas.

Sanctions Loophole: How Western Chips End Up in Russian Missiles

Despite high-profile statements about import substitution, the Russian defense industry remains critically dependent on foreign components. Vladislav Vlasyuk, the President’s Representative on Sanctions Policy, emphasizes that without Western microelectronics, Russia is incapable of producing anything more complex than a screw.

Chaotic attempts to replace American parts with Chinese equivalents often fail, forcing the enemy to once again seek ways to circumvent sanctions.

Analysis of the debris from “Iskander-M” ballistic missiles reveals a global supply chain:

• microchips from Taiwan and the U.S.;
• diodes from Switzerland;
• connectors from Germany.

Although there are no longer any direct shipments to Russia, the components pass through long chains of intermediaries in third countries. A solution to this problem could be a firm stance by manufacturing countries, as the Netherlands did with ASML, significantly restricting the sale of equipment for manufacturing microchips. However, many companies continue to ignore Ukraine’s requests, turning a blind eye to the end user of their products.

By the way, Russia has released an upgraded version of the “Geran-4” drone, equipped with a specialized warhead designed to destroy bridges and power grids. The Main Intelligence Directorate detected the American high-precision sensors in the drone’s electronics, as well as the “Susanin” optical guidance system, which verifies the route using ground landmarks.

The Starlink Challenge and Russia’s “Rassvet” Response

Countering Russian ballistic missiles remains a separate challenge. Enemy launchers operate at a distance of about 150 kilometers from the border, taking hours to deploy and pack up.

Ukraine could effectively destroy them using strike UAVs, but this requires stable communication coverage over Russian territory. According to Serhiy Flash, SpaceX refuses to grant the Ukrainian military access to Starlink to conduct such operations, even in Russia’s border regions.

At the same time, Moscow recognizes the strategic importance of satellite communications and is attempting to deploy its own "Rassvet" system. Currently, there are about 40 Russian satellites in orbit, giving them communication “windows” over Ukraine lasting up to an hour.

Although Russia’s current capabilities in this area are limited, there is a serious threat that China could become involved. If Beijing helps Moscow launch hundreds of satellites into orbit under the guise of a “peaceful civilian program,” the Russian military will gain a closed communications system resistant to external interference, which will significantly complicate the work of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.

Host Andriy Shtangret on Russia’s new technologies: watch the video