Russia May Be Left Without "Iskanders": Ukraine Has Found a Way to Disrupt Missile Production and Weaken the Enemy's Air Force

Ukraine is finding ways to weaken the Russian military machine even without a sufficient number of its own ballistic missiles. The defense forces are striking not only military targets but also industrial facilities without which Russia would be unable to produce missiles, repair its strategic aircraft, or maintain its military equipment. The consequences of such attacks may turn out to be much more serious than they seem at first glance.

Aviation expert Valery Romanenko explained in an analysis for 24 Channel why a strike on the production of fuel for “Iskander” missiles could disrupt the production of entire batches of missiles – which Russian aircraft and systems Ukraine is trying to destroy on the ground – as well as what Western JASSM-ER and Meteor missiles are capable of and what role Gripen fighters could play in the conflict with Russia.

An Asymmetric Response: Destroying Russian “Iskander” Production

Lacking sufficient quantities of their own ballistic missiles, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are implementing a strategy of preemptive destruction of Russia’s missile capabilities. A prime example is an attack on a factory in the Leningrad Oblast, which produces solid-fuel engines for the “Iskander-M” operational-tactical missiles.

The production of this fuel is an extremely complex technological process. Special planetary mixers are used to create a homogeneous mass, which require perfect cleanliness and a completely stable power supply.

According to Romanenko, even the slightest interruption in the power supply (and a local power plant was damaged during the attack) results in the entire batch of engines being filled at that moment becoming unusable and having to be discarded.

Although this strike does not mean an immediate halt to the missile attacks on Ukraine, it significantly disrupts the enemy’s logistics. The engines still need to be transported to manufacturing plants in the Moscow region or Votkinsk, which takes time. Combined with previous strikes on electronics manufacturers and the destruction of launchers, this systematically reduces Russia’s ability to carry out massive strikes.

Full interview with the aviation expert: watch the video

Hunting Down the Enemy’s Unique Aircraft

At the same time, Ukraine is methodically dismantling Russia’s aviation infrastructure. The strike on the 123rd Aviation Repair Plant in Stara Russa (Novgorod Oblast) is critically important, as this facility performs comprehensive repairs on Il-76 aircraft and the A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft based on them.

The plant repairs D-30 engines and avionics and carries out localized upgrades on these aircraft, as well as on Il-78 aerial refueling aircraft. Given that a single A-50 costs approximately $350 million, damage to the repair facility is a serious blow to Russia’s strategic aviation.

In addition, during the repulsion of a Ukrainian attack on the “Novatek” oil terminal in the port of Ust-Luga, a Russian fighter jet (Su-30SM or Su-30SM2) was likely lost, as evidenced by reports from enemy military correspondents regarding the death of a two-person crew.

As a reminder, on the night of November 11, drones launched a massive attack on the Leningrad Region of Russia. The region’s governor, Oleksandr Drozdenko, claimed that 141 drones had been destroyed, but local residents reported numerous explosions and fires. 
The main epicenter of the attack was the Ust-Luga commercial seaport, located approximately 100 kilometers from St. Petersburg. A massive fire broke out there at the Novatek fuel terminal. The strike hit a gas condensate fractionation and transshipment complex, storage tanks for petroleum products, and other port infrastructure. A column of smoke was visible for tens of kilometers, and tankers were being loaded at the port. Due to the threat of UAVs, Pulkovo Airport was closed, and two passenger planes were diverted to Finland.

Western Weapons as a Temporary Alternative

While Ukraine’s defense industry strives to restore its capabilities, support from partners remains critical. The introduction of the American JASSM-ER air-to-ground missiles (ERAM system), with a range of up to 900 kilometers, opens up new capabilities for F-16 fighter jets.

Despite their small warhead, these missiles are ideally suited for rapidly striking Russian S-400 or Iskander launchers while they are still moving into position, provided that intelligence data is received promptly from the U.S.

At the same time, expectations regarding the Swedish Gripen fighters require a realistic approach. Ukraine will receive older models, whose radars do not allow for the effective use of long-range Meteor missiles (range over 200 km). Their main task will be to intercept Russian cruise missiles and jet drones using cheaper munitions, which will free up the F-16s for more complex missions on the front lines.

Incidentally, the Meteor missiles are among the most advanced Western long-range air-to-air weapons. They are capable of reaching speeds of about Mach 4 (approximately 4,600 kilometers per hour) and engaging air targets at ranges of up to 200 kilometers.

A distinctive feature of the Meteor is its ramjet engine, which maintains the missile’s high speed throughout the entire flight, not just during the initial phase. This makes it more difficult for targets to evade destruction even at long ranges. The missile is equipped with an active radar homing seeker, can receive updated target data after launch, and can operate in the face of electronic countermeasures.

For Ukraine, such a weapon is particularly important in combating Russian Su-34 and Su-35 fighter jets, which launch guided bombs at Ukrainian positions while remaining out of range of many Ukrainian weapons systems.