"Russia Is Setting a Trap in Oleshky": An Interview with Andriushchenko on Child Abductions and the Kremlin's Plan

The ceasefire in Oleshky could be not only an opportunity to save civilians, but also a trap that Russia will exploit for its own interests. Amid the evacuation of Ukrainians from the occupied territory, there are risks of child abductions, shifts in Russian military positions, and a large-scale disinformation campaign involving foreign journalists.

Petro Andriushchenko, head of the Center for the Study of the Occupation, explained in an interview with 24 Channel how Russia could exploit the situation in Oleshky to discredit Ukraine, why Kyiv risks losing the information war, and what signals the roundups of conscripts in Moscow are sending. He also assessed the consequences of Ukrainian strikes on Russian military logistics and oil refineries.

The “ceasefire” trap in Oleshky: evacuation, children, and the risk of a propaganda provocation

Melania Trump stated that the ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia in Oleshky has taken effect, and the ceasefire has been extended beyond the city limits to ensure the safety of humanitarian convoys. At the same time, the Financial Times reports that Ukrainians may first be transported to Crimea and then to Russia. The fate of these people afterward is a cause for concern. What do we need to understand about this gesture of goodwill on the part of the Russians? What risks does it pose, and how might Russia exploit this situation for its own interests?

In fact, there are many risks. For the past few days, this is essentially all we’ve been talking about. It seems to me that we’re losing focus somewhat, and this could have certain consequences.

First, it’s positive that the “ceasefire in the Oleshky area” has been extended and expanded to include neighboring territories. This is very important. The Russians have begun spreading the claim that people moving toward Oleshky from other territories could come under fire. They claim that such movements are not coordinated with the Russian authorities and will be regarded as military actions, since the ceasefire does not apply in neighboring territories.

First and foremost, this concerns Hola Prystan, which is located 20 kilometers from Oleshky. The situation there is essentially the same, but this town is not mentioned in the media or in the agreements. At the same time, people are trying to find ways to reach Oleshky to evacuate.

The second risk is that it remains unclear exactly how people will return to territory controlled by Ukraine. It is logical to assume that they will be transported across the Dnipro River. This truly requires a broader ceasefire zone and a clear understanding of how the evacuation will take place.

If, however, people are returned via another agreed-upon route, they will have to cross all of Russia and then travel through Belarus to reach Ukraine. For a humanitarian mission, this is a much more complicated route.

The greatest risk for us involves children. The day before yesterday, Dmytro Lubinets emphasized that Ukraine has a procedure for the compulsory evacuation of children and families with children from frontline territories to areas under Ukrainian control. But how can this be applied to Oleshky?

It is occupied territory, even though it is located near the front lines. How can Ukrainians be forcibly evacuated from there? At the same time, Lantratova stated that evacuation should be voluntary only, and that children should not be discussed at all. Lantratova is a criminal and an accomplice in the abduction of Ukrainian children.

It should be noted that Yana Lantratova is the Russian Human Rights Commissioner and a former State Duma deputy. Ukrainian law enforcement officials suspect her of involvement in the illegal removal of children from the temporarily occupied city of Kherson to Russia in 2022. On October 26, 2026, Lantratova spoke out against the forced evacuation of families with children from the occupied town of Oleshky, insisting on voluntary departure.

The risk is that the Russians could take our children away. This would cause significant outrage, rule out the possibility of using Oleshky for future humanitarian operations, and undermine trust in the Ukrainian authorities.

The final risk is the arrival of a large number of foreign journalists in occupied Oleshky. We’re talking about American and European media representatives. Our sources mentioned Tucker Carlson, who might be brought in to show a foreign audience that Ukrainians allegedly staged a blockade and committed genocide.

I don’t see us adequately countering this. There is no information indicating that Ukrainian journalists have received accreditation or that they have been invited on the trip to show what is actually happening in Oleshky. This means we find ourselves in a weak position.

The military in the Kherson sector isn’t very happy with this ceasefire, as they understand how the Russians might exploit it. The Russians will be able to reposition their forces and improve their situation.

Today, this is a classic trolley problem. At the same time, the positive aspect is that the ceasefire has been extended to cover a larger area. This will allow people in the Kherson region to move around more safely and restock their supplies. The ceasefire will also fully apply to the Ukrainian-controlled bank of the Dnipro River. Kherson, Beryslav, and other settlements will be able to catch their breath and build up the necessary supplies for the period after the ceasefire ends.

Full interview with Petro Andriushchenko: watch the video

What the Russians will show the world in Oleshky and how Ukraine is losing the communications battle

And as for foreign journalists: what will they show the world? Just like in Mariupol? They certainly won’t report on what the Russians have turned Oleshky into. Where will they find undamaged locations to film? In Mariupol, we saw how they showcased individual buildings that they supposedly rebuilt. And what will they show in Oleshky?

And this is where we find ourselves in a trap of our own making. Most of the destruction in Oleshky will be caused by strikes from our side. And it’s clear why. When the Russians occupy a high-rise building from which they terrorize people in Kherson, it’s clear that sooner or later a strike will hit that building. And the strike will come from our side. That’s exactly what they’ll show.

We’ll reap the consequences of a massive failure in government communication, since we’re sweeping this problem under the rug.

At the same time, the question arises: what should Oleshky look like during the war? The people have decided on their own to remain under occupation. Our people understand what is happening, who is to blame, and why strikes are being launched from the Ukrainian side.

They say, “Give us more so we can get home as soon as possible.” We shouldn’t sweep this problem under the rug. We need to call a spade a spade: the Russians are using the civilian population as a shield. That’s why we’re forced to act with the utmost caution, and as a result, the infrastructure suffers.

We cannot convince all civilians to evacuate. But if we refrain from striking altogether, the consequences could be catastrophic – even leading to the loss of Kyiv within three days, with enormous human casualties.

Tucker Carlson could take advantage of this situation. One gets the impression that he even considers Hitler an acceptable figure. The Russians, for their part, will keep stoking this issue. Lantratova isn’t afraid to publicly engage in conflict and then negotiate with Lubinets.

She blames the Ukrainian army, claiming that it is solely to blame for everything. We, however, remain silent. The global media picks up on Lantratova’s statements and spreads them around the world. Meanwhile, there are no corresponding comments from Lubinets that could serve as a counterargument.

Lubinets and Lantratova / Tg: Lubinets

We must draw conclusions right now to ensure that this situation does not repeat itself. We need to understand that Melania Trump is ready to help secure a ceasefire if we communicate effectively.

Next, we can discuss Kamianka-Dniprovska, Energodar, and our own Nikopol. We need to take a tougher stance right now, particularly at the level of Ukrainian officials. We continue to play the neutrality card, but this leads to nothing good.

Raids on conscripts in Moscow: Why has mobilization reached the Russian capital?

In conversations with those who call him, Putin declares that he will not give up Donbas. What illusory plans for its capture is he still hatching? Raids on conscripts are already taking place in Moscow. Security forces have stepped up raids to find young men of draft age and send them to the army. Now these raids have reached the Russian capital as well. Does Putin expect this to help him achieve his goals?

In fact, that’s exactly what was bound to happen. Moscow is no exception. These people are registered as residents of Moscow, but they will be drafted into the army just like everyone else. Nothing will save them.

The fact that the roundups have begun and are being documented in Moscow is a very telling sign. It means that Putin isn’t afraid to launch such operations even in the capital and to demonstrate to the entire country what lies ahead.

There’s also St. Petersburg, and I think it’s only a matter of time before something similar starts there as well. Those who left Russia in 2022, fearing mobilization, and later returned may now also find themselves among the first to be sent to the army.

Even 18-year-olds are being drafted into the army. The situation is similar for women: they are being enlisted in the recruitment service as much as possible. Mobilization has already reached Moscow.

Russia is running out of manpower, and the Kremlin has no other option. At the same time, the Russian army’s casualties are rising.

I can’t even remember the last time the number of Russian casualties in a single day was less than a thousand. Now I can’t recall a time when it fell below one and a half thousand. This means that soon we may see as many as two thousand casualties a day.

This is the death throes of Putin’s regime. Yes, things are tough for us. Yes, the Russians are launching attacks. But overall, this doesn’t fundamentally change the situation: the front line remains where it was. What’s more, we’re gradually advancing and liberating territories, particularly in the Donbas itself – the very region Putin is so reluctant to give up.

But there’s no need to give it up – we’ll take it back ourselves. All it takes is time, patience, and perseverance.

The likelihood of riots and the latest strikes on oil refineries and military logistics

Putin really thinks that rounding up conscripts will help him. But now that these raids have reached Moscow and St. Petersburg, surely this will outrage local residents?

No, no, nothing of the sort will happen there. Over the past twenty years, Russians have gone through several transformations, but this hasn’t led them to start protesting. For that to happen, you need at least some citizens – even if they aren’t particularly politically aware. And in Russia, aside from the population, there’s practically nothing left.

They still live somewhere between Raskolnikov and Gerasim from *Mumu*. They wanted to bring back the Russian Empire – and they got it. But those who dreamed of becoming imperialists forgot that there is a small group consisting of the emperor and his inner circle, while the rest are servants. And these servants don’t know how to rebel. They are content with what they have.

People think: “If I go out to rebel, they’ll definitely send me on a meat assault. But if I stay home and keep quiet, maybe they’ll even give me a white ‘Lada’ as a gift.” There’s no one there who could organize a revolt, and there’s nothing to build it on.

There will be no protests.

Yuriy Fedorenko called Ukraine’s strikes on rubber industry facilities very successful. How do you assess the latest attacks? At the same time, there are warnings that Russia could launch a massive combined strike within the next 48 hours. Kyiv is under ballistic attack, and Russian oil refineries have been burning fiercely over the past week.

First, we shouldn’t oversimplify the situation. Just because something wasn’t on fire today doesn’t mean it won’t catch fire tomorrow. There are aspects of air defense that we don’t see. For example, Ukraine attacked data centers in Melitopol. We haven’t seen such intense activity by Russian air defense in this area in a long time.

What does this mean? Russia has managed to strengthen its air defense and redeploy additional missiles to the Azov region. The main corridor we used for our strikes ran right through the Melitopol area. Otherwise, it’s simply impossible to reach the Russian oil refineries.

First, we have to get past the first echelon of air defense. The Russians have now reinforced it. At the same time, strikes on data centers and targets in the occupied territories near the front line continue. I’d love to see gaps in the Russian bridges.

I have two favorite bridges in the Rostov region that we’ve already struck. I’d like to see them simply cease to exist – then we could watch how the Russians would transport military equipment across the Don River without a rail connection.

There are specific tasks and objectives that our intelligence and Unmanned Systems Forces are working on. There will definitely be surprises. For now, we don’t have a military-industrial complex powerful enough to simultaneously launch massive attacks on targets in the occupied territories and disable Russian oil refineries. That’s why we all need to work even harder and donate more actively.

This interview has been condensed, corrected, and edited for better audience understanding.